Lobos UPNFM 0-1 Marathon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.94
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
37%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
16%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
31%
+5.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
37%
Away Win
44%
-7.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.5pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Marathon EU Bookmakers 48%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -30%
0.97/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.43
-21% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -28%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
335 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lobos UPNFM
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Marathon
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
21.01.2024 Marathon Marathon 3-1 HT 3-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
26.11.2023 Marathon Marathon 3-0 HT 2-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
22.09.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-3 HT 0-2 Marathon Marathon HON
07.04.2023 Marathon Marathon 1-1 HT 0-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
12.02.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 2-1 HT 2-0 Marathon Marathon HON
14.11.2022 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 2-1 HT 0-0 Marathon Marathon HON
POST-MATCH Lobos UPNFM vs Marathon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marathon squeezed past Lobos UPNFM 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 37% — and on the day Marathon made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marathon led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lobos UPNFM and 2.00 for Marathon.

What was the final score of Lobos UPNFM vs Marathon?

Lobos UPNFM 0-1 Marathon in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lobos UPNFM vs Marathon?

Before kick-off our model rated an Marathon win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Lobos UPNFM 36%, draw 28%, Marathon 37%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marathon), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Marathon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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