Marathon 3-1 Lobos UPNFM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 21 Jan 2024

Marathon
3-1 HT 3-0
Lobos UPNFM
📅21/01/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Honduras - National League Apertura – 2023/2024

Marathon vs Lobos UPNFM Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
67%
-9.6pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.1pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+6.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Marathon v Lobos UPNFM — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marathon EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 16%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
2.04/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/2.40
-3% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
412 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0

Marathon vs Lobos UPNFM Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marathon
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lobos UPNFM
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
66% Ball Possession 34%
23 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.11.2023 Marathon Marathon 3-0 HT 2-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
22.09.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-3 HT 0-2 Marathon Marathon HON
07.04.2023 Marathon Marathon 1-1 HT 0-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
12.02.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 2-1 HT 2-0 Marathon Marathon HON
14.11.2022 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 2-1 HT 0-0 Marathon Marathon HON
05.09.2022 Marathon Marathon 1-1 HT 0-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
POST-MATCH Marathon vs Lobos UPNFM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marathon beat Lobos UPNFM 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Marathon as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Marathon and 1.17 for Lobos UPNFM.

What was the final score of Marathon vs Lobos UPNFM?

Marathon 3-1 Lobos UPNFM in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marathon vs Lobos UPNFM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marathon win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Marathon 57%, draw 23%, Lobos UPNFM 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marathon) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Marathon)
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