Export Sebaco 2-3 Deportivo Ocotal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nikaragua - Premier League, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-8.4pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+7.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.6pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Export Sebaco EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Ocotal EU Bookmakers 25%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +18%
1.83/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.56
-2% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
369 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Export Sebaco
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Deportivo Ocotal
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.11.2023 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 3-1 HT 2-0 Deportivo Ocotal Deportivo Ocotal NİK
14.09.2023 Deportivo Ocotal Deportivo Ocotal 1-3 HT 0-2 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
14.04.2023 Deportivo Ocotal Deportivo Ocotal 0-0 HT 0-0 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
17.02.2023 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 1-4 HT 1-1 Deportivo Ocotal Deportivo Ocotal NİK
31.10.2022 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 2-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Ocotal Deportivo Ocotal NİK
11.08.2022 Deportivo Ocotal Deportivo Ocotal 2-1 HT 2-0 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
POST-MATCH Export Sebaco vs Deportivo Ocotal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Ocotal nicked a narrow win over Export Sebaco 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Export Sebaco at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Export Sebaco had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Export Sebaco and 1.33 for Deportivo Ocotal.

What was the final score of Export Sebaco vs Deportivo Ocotal?

Export Sebaco 2-3 Deportivo Ocotal in the Nikaragua - Premier League on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Export Sebaco vs Deportivo Ocotal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Export Sebaco win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Export Sebaco 46%, draw 25%, Deportivo Ocotal 29%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Export Sebaco) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Export Sebaco) ✓ Over 2.5
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