Progreso 4-3 Racing Club Montevideo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
34%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+4.3pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.7pp
34%
Away Win
39%
-5.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.4pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.21/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/0.78
+4% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +36%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
289 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
14.08.2022 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 2-1 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU2
09.10.2019 Progreso Progreso 2-1 HT 2-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
4-3
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Progreso vs Racing Club Montevideo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progreso nicked a narrow win over Racing Club Montevideo 4-3. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 34% — and on the day Progreso made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Progreso had 52% of the ball to Racing Club Montevideo's 48%, shots finished 13-12.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Progreso and 1.50 for Racing Club Montevideo.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Racing Club Montevideo?

Progreso 4-3 Racing Club Montevideo in the Uruguay - Premier League on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Racing Club Montevideo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Progreso win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Progreso 38%, draw 29%, Racing Club Montevideo 34%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Progreso) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Progreso) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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