Motor Lublin 3-3 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 10 Mar 2025

Motor Lublin
3-3 HT 1-1
Legia Varşova
📅10/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Motor Lublin vs Legia Varşova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
47%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.1
Over 2.5
58%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.93
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
26%
2.89
6+ Goals
14%
8.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
5.28
1/2
5%
22.1
1/X
8%
13.25
X/1
10%
7.65
X/2
16%
4.88
X/X
9%
5.27
2/1
10%
32.5
2/2
26%
2.63
2/X
8%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
28%
+0.4pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
47%
Away Win
47%
-0.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
44%
-1.7pp
58%
Over 2.5
56%
+1.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.4pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Motor Lublin v Legia Varşova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 51%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.41/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.41
+85% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 78%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
23.7 Crosses 18.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Motor Lublin vs Legia Varşova Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motor Lublin
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Legia Varşova
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.84 xG 3.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
230 Passes 404
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 43
24 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.09.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 5-2 HT 2-1 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
01.07.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-3 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin HAZ
01.12.2021 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-2 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POLK

Motor Lublin 3-3 Legia Varşova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motor Lublin
3-3
AWAY Legia Varşova
2.47 xG 2.73
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 29
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
286 Passes 338
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 46
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Motor Lublin vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motor Lublin and Legia Varşova couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Legia Varşova at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Motor Lublin had 47% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 53%, shots finished 14-29, expected goals 2.47 to 2.73.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Motor Lublin and 3.00 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Motor Lublin vs Legia Varşova?

Motor Lublin 3-3 Legia Varşova in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 10/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motor Lublin vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated an Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Motor Lublin 28%, draw 25%, Legia Varşova 47%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Legia Varşova) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →