Legia Varşova 5-2 Motor Lublin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.78
Over 2.5
39%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.99
No
58%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.01
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.88
6+ Goals
8%
17.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 31% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.05
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.8
X/1
15%
3.62
X/2
7%
10.65
X/X
10%
5.01
2/1
6%
24.85
2/2
11%
9.0
2/X
8%
17.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
59%
-9.9pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.9pp
24%
Away Win
17%
+7.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
52%
+8.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
48%
-8.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.2pp
58%
BTTS No
54%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +44% / +44%
1.88/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/0.71
+16% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% /
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
361 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 72%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
22.9 Crosses 17.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Legia Varşova
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Motor Lublin
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.07.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-3 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin HAZ
01.12.2021 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-2 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
5-2
AWAY Motor Lublin
3.50 xG 0.84
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 14
10 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
404 Passes 230
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
43 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Motor Lublin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova cruised past Motor Lublin 5-2. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Legia Varşova as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 61% of the ball to Motor Lublin's 39%, shots finished 20-14, expected goals 3.50 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Legia Varşova and 2.00 for Motor Lublin.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Motor Lublin?

Legia Varşova 5-2 Motor Lublin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Motor Lublin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 49%, draw 26%, Motor Lublin 24%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Legia Varşova) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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