Famalicao 1-0 Rio Ave — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 10 Mar 2025

Famalicao
1-0 HT 1-0
Rio Ave
📅10/03/2025 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Famalicao vs Rio Ave Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.75
Over 2.5
37%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.82
No
58%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.95
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
16%
3.7
6+ Goals
11%
15.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 35% vs market 27.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.59
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
13%
4.63
X/2
8%
8.28
X/X
21%
4.29
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
10%
6.47
2/X
5%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.0pp
32%
Draw
28%
+4.4pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.8pp
63%
Under 2.5
53%
+10.0pp
37%
Over 2.5
47%
-10.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
51%
-8.8pp
58%
BTTS No
49%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Famalicao v Rio Ave — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Famalicao EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 27%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -6%
1.28/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.57
-15% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +0%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
318 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 78%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
22.3 Crosses 16.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Famalicao vs Rio Ave Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Famalicao
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Rio Ave
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.29 xG 1.26
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
300 Passes 354
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
04.10.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-1 HT 0-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
16.02.2024 Famalicao Famalicao 2-1 HT 1-1 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
16.09.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-1 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
26.05.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-2 HT 0-2 Famalicao Famalicao POR
22.01.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 0-0 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
21.02.2021 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-1 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR

Famalicao 1-0 Rio Ave — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Famalicao
1-0
AWAY Rio Ave
1.50 xG 0.81
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
385 Passes 340
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 10
22 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Famalicao vs Rio Ave
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Famalicao nicked a narrow win over Rio Ave 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Famalicao as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Famalicao had 53% of the ball to Rio Ave's 47%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.50 to 0.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Famalicao had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Famalicao and 0.83 for Rio Ave.

What was the final score of Famalicao vs Rio Ave?

Famalicao 1-0 Rio Ave in the Portugal - Premier League on 10/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Famalicao vs Rio Ave?

Before kick-off our model rated a Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Famalicao 42%, draw 32%, Rio Ave 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Famalicao), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Famalicao) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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