Vitebsk 0-1 Smorgon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 10 May 2024

📅10/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
32%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.64
Over 2.5
54%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.99
No
44%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.61
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
4.51
6+ Goals
11%
24.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.51 — our 25% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
22%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
50%
-8.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
32%
Away Win
24%
+8.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
57%
-10.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
43%
+10.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
46%
+9.9pp
44%
BTTS No
54%
-9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitebsk EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Smorgon EU Bookmakers 27%
-16% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.14/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/2.15
-17% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +79% / -41%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
356 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitebsk
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Smorgon
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.10.2021 Smorgon Smorgon 2-0 HT 1-0 Vitebsk Vitebsk BLR
28.05.2021 Vitebsk Vitebsk 5-0 HT 2-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitebsk
0-1
AWAY Smorgon
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vitebsk vs Smorgon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Smorgon edged past Vitebsk 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Vitebsk at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vitebsk had 56% of the ball to Smorgon's 44%, shots finished 9-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Vitebsk and 1.00 for Smorgon.

What was the final score of Vitebsk vs Smorgon?

Vitebsk 0-1 Smorgon in the Belarus - Premier League on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitebsk vs Smorgon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitebsk win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Vitebsk 42%, draw 26%, Smorgon 32%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vitebsk) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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BLR More Belarus - Premier League
10 May 2024
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