Gefle 0-4 Varbergs — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Superettan, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.22
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
3.01
6+ Goals
11%
9.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.22 — our 28% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.81
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
19%
4.87
X/2
11%
6.95
X/X
12%
5.26
2/1
7%
23.15
2/2
12%
4.62
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
-0.2pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.0pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+1.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.2pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gefle EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Varbergs EU Bookmakers 33%
+6% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.90/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.31
+21% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
358 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gefle
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Varbergs
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
23.06.2024 Varbergs Varbergs 4-3 HT 1-1 Gefle Gefle İSÇ2
02.03.2013 Gefle Gefle 3-2 HT 1-1 Varbergs Varbergs İSÇK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gefle
0-4
AWAY Varbergs
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 1
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gefle vs Varbergs
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varbergs cruised past Gefle 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Gefle at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Gefle had 49% of the ball to Varbergs's 51%, shots finished 7-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Gefle and 3.00 for Varbergs.

What was the final score of Gefle vs Varbergs?

Gefle 0-4 Varbergs in the Sweden - Superettan on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gefle vs Varbergs?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gefle win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gefle 45%, draw 24%, Varbergs 31%. The final score 0-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gefle) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSÇ2 More Sweden - Superettan
10 Aug 2024
16:00 Östersunds FK vs Östers Analysis →
16:00 Utsiktens BK vs Trelleborgs FF Analysis →