Varbergs 4-3 Gefle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Superettan, 23 Jun 2024

Varbergs
4-3 HT 1-1
Gefle
📅23/06/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Sweden - Superettan – 2024

Varbergs vs Gefle Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.6
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.34
6+ Goals
11%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.6 — our 29% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.5
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
13%
4.33
X/2
12%
7.97
X/X
9%
4.98
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
11%
5.85
2/X
10%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-3.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.5pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Varbergs v Gefle — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Varbergs EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Gefle EU Bookmakers 29%
-44% / -44% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -9%
1.01/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.80
-38% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
327 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

Varbergs vs Gefle Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Varbergs
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Gefle
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
The Meetings
02.03.2013 Gefle Gefle 3-2 HT 1-1 Varbergs Varbergs İSÇK
POST-MATCH Varbergs vs Gefle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varbergs edged past Gefle 4-3. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Varbergs as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

What was the final score of Varbergs vs Gefle?

Varbergs 4-3 Gefle in the Sweden - Superettan on 23/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Varbergs vs Gefle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Varbergs win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Varbergs 46%, draw 25%, Gefle 29%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Varbergs) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Varbergs) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSÇ2 More Sweden - Superettan
23 Jun 2024
16:00 IK Oddevold vs Degerfors Analysis →
16:00 IK Brage vs GIF Sundsvall Analysis →
16:00 Östersunds FK vs Utsiktens BK Analysis →
18:00 Skövde AIK vs Sandvikens IF Analysis →