Istra 1961 2-1 HNK Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 10 Aug 2024

Istra 1961
2-1 HT 0-0
HNK Gorica
📅10/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Croatia - 1. HNL – 2024/2025

Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
23%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.6
Over 2.5
33%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.03
No
62%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.53
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.68
6+ Goals
7%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.53 — our 39% vs market 33.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
23%
X/2
10%
X/X
19%
2/1
11%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-3.5pp
32%
Draw
27%
+4.5pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-1.1pp
67%
Under 2.5
59%
+8.6pp
33%
Over 2.5
41%
-8.6pp
38%
BTTS Yes
45%
-7.1pp
62%
BTTS No
55%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Istra 1961 v HNK Gorica — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 27%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +0%
1.20/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.26
+1% / +92% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
343 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 71%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
16.7 Crosses 14.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Istra 1961
2W-2D-2L
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.41 xG 1.10
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
431 Passes 212
83% Pass Accuracy 70%
22 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
17.03.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
09.12.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
23.09.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-1 HT 0-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
13.05.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
10.03.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 5-4 HT 1-2 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
04.11.2022 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR

Istra 1961 2-1 HNK Gorica — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Istra 1961
2-1
AWAY HNK Gorica
3.18 xG 1.03
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
323 Passes 207
77% Pass Accuracy 69%
46 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Istra 1961 nicked a narrow win over HNK Gorica 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Istra 1961 as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Istra 1961 had 59% of the ball to HNK Gorica's 41%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 3.18 to 1.03 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Istra 1961's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Istra 1961 and 1.00 for HNK Gorica.

What was the final score of Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?

Istra 1961 2-1 HNK Gorica in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Istra 1961 win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Istra 1961 46%, draw 32%, HNK Gorica 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Istra 1961) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Istra 1961) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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