Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 10 Oct 2024

Atletico Mineiro
2-1 HT 2-1
Gremio
📅10/10/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.8
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
32%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.75
Over 2.5
41%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.88
No
57%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.45
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.3
X/1
16%
4.08
X/2
15%
8.33
X/X
17%
4.52
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
12%
6.65
2/X
6%
15.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
51%
-13.4pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.6pp
32%
Away Win
23%
+9.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
53%
+6.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
47%
-6.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.7pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Mineiro v Gremio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 26%
-3% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +11%
1.42/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.54
+12% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / -23%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
388 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
21.9 Crosses 14.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4

Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Gremio
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.61 xG 1.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
425 Passes 334
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
01.09.2024 Gremio Gremio 2-3 HT 2-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
26.11.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 3-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
23.07.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
10.12.2021 Gremio Gremio 4-3 HT 3-2 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
04.11.2021 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
21.01.2021 Gremio Gremio 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1

Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Gremio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
2-1
AWAY Gremio
1.83 xG 1.40
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 10
311 Passes 385
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 33
9 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro squeezed past Gremio 2-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 30% / 32%) promised a tight game; Atletico Mineiro found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 44% of the ball to Gremio's 56%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.83 to 1.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 1.50 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio?

Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 10/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 38%, draw 30%, Gremio 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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