Gremio 2-3 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.52
Over 2.5
35%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.09
No
59%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.3
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
5.3
6+ Goals
7%
33.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.05
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.1
X/1
16%
4.39
X/2
12%
6.87
X/X
16%
3.63
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
10%
5.75
2/X
9%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-4.7pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.5pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.2pp
65%
Under 2.5
62%
+2.8pp
35%
Over 2.5
38%
-2.8pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.1pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 29%
+6% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
1.46/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.14
+13% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -4%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
302 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 405 · 82%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
18.3 Crosses 18.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.26 xG 1.52
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
362 Passes 408
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.11.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 3-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
23.07.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
10.12.2021 Gremio Gremio 4-3 HT 3-2 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
04.11.2021 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
21.01.2021 Gremio Gremio 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
27.09.2020 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 3-1 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
2-3
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
2.04 xG 2.85
27% Ball Possession 73%
11 Total Shots 27
5 Shots on Target 13
4 Corners 8
157 Passes 498
74% Pass Accuracy 89%
21 Box Touches 36
12 Crosses 34
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro squeezed past Gremio 3-2 away from home. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 30% / 31% — and on the day Atletico Mineiro made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gremio had 27% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 73%, shots finished 11-27, expected goals 2.04 to 2.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gremio and 2.00 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Atletico Mineiro?

Gremio 2-3 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Gremio 39%, draw 30%, Atletico Mineiro 31%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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