Cuiaba 2-1 Criciuma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.92
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
31%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.6
Over 2.5
39%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.99
No
59%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.51
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.72
6+ Goals
7%
26.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.51 — our 38% vs market 33.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.74
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.35
X/1
13%
4.17
X/2
11%
7.53
X/X
14%
3.97
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
13%
6.27
2/X
7%
15.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
48%
-7.6pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.5pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+7.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.0pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.8pp
59%
BTTS No
54%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cuiaba EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Criciuma EU Bookmakers 28%
-4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.26/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.05
-32% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
330 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 80%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
27.6 Crosses 18.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cuiaba
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Criciuma
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.98 xG 1.14
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
275 Passes 314
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 3
09.06.2024 Criciuma Criciuma 2-5 HT 0-3 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
31.08.2019 Cuiaba Cuiaba 0-0 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
27.04.2019 Criciuma Criciuma 0-1 HT 0-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cuiaba
2-1
AWAY Criciuma
1.22 xG 0.60
45% Ball Possession 55%
22 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
327 Passes 416
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
27 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Cuiaba vs Criciuma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cuiaba nicked a narrow win over Criciuma 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 31% — and on the day Cuiaba made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cuiaba had 45% of the ball to Criciuma's 55%, shots finished 22-12, expected goals 1.22 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Cuiaba had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Cuiaba and 0.67 for Criciuma.

What was the final score of Cuiaba vs Criciuma?

Cuiaba 2-1 Criciuma in the Brazil - Serie A on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cuiaba vs Criciuma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cuiaba win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Cuiaba 40%, draw 28%, Criciuma 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cuiaba) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cuiaba) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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