Leganes 3-1 Valladolid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 10 Oct 2024

Leganes
3-1
Valladolid
📅10/10/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Friendlies – 2024/2025

Leganes vs Valladolid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
31%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.71
Over 2.5
38%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.82
No
60%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.83
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.12
6+ Goals
9%
19.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.83 — our 35% vs market 29.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.58
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1 EV+
22%
5.09
X/2
9%
5.63
X/X
12%
4.25
2/1
6%
30.0
2/2
16%
4.11
2/X
8%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
39%
+1.9pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.3pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.2pp
62%
Under 2.5
55%
+7.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
45%
-7.0pp
40%
BTTS Yes
51%
-11.3pp
60%
BTTS No
49%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leganes v Valladolid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leganes EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Valladolid EU Bookmakers 37%
-30% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
0.78/1.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.43
-49% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / -2%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
277 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.5

Leganes vs Valladolid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leganes
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Valladolid
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.58 xG 1.04
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
294 Passes 392
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.08.2024 Valladolid Valladolid 0-0 HT 0-0 Leganes Leganes İS1
03.02.2024 Leganes Leganes 0-0 HT 0-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS2
17.11.2023 Valladolid Valladolid 1-1 HT 1-0 Leganes Leganes İS2
22.07.2023 Leganes Leganes 4-1 Valladolid Valladolid HAZ
02.01.2022 Valladolid Valladolid 1-0 HT 1-0 Leganes Leganes İS2
17.10.2021 Leganes Leganes 0-2 HT 0-1 Valladolid Valladolid İS2

Leganes 3-1 Valladolid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leganes
3-1
AWAY Valladolid
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Leganes vs Valladolid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leganes saw off Valladolid 3-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Leganes as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leganes had 51% of the ball to Valladolid's 49%, shots finished 14-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valladolid led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Leganes and 0.83 for Valladolid.

What was the final score of Leganes vs Valladolid?

Leganes 3-1 Valladolid in the Friendlies on 10/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leganes vs Valladolid?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leganes win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Leganes 41%, draw 28%, Valladolid 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leganes) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leganes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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