Ferroviaria 0-1 Chapecoense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 10 Oct 2025

📅10/10/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
24%
3.04
Away
38%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.64
Over 2.5
45%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.52
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
19%
4.22
6+ Goals
9%
21.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
16%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.8pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.8pp
38%
Away Win
29%
+8.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.3pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ferroviaria EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 33%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -17%
1.37/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/0.99
-15% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
309 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 79%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
16.5 Crosses 17.0
3.4 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ferroviaria
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Chapecoense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.82 xG 0.84
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
467 Passes 241
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 11
17 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
17.06.2025 Chapecoense Chapecoense 2-1 HT 1-0 Ferroviaria Ferroviaria BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ferroviaria
0-1
AWAY Chapecoense
1.00 xG 0.95
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 8
376 Passes 285
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 23
42 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ferroviaria vs Chapecoense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chapecoense squeezed past Ferroviaria 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 38% — and on the day Chapecoense made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Ferroviaria had 57% of the ball to Chapecoense's 43%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 1.00 to 0.95.

What was the final score of Ferroviaria vs Chapecoense?

Ferroviaria 0-1 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie B on 10/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ferroviaria vs Chapecoense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ferroviaria win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Ferroviaria 38%, draw 24%, Chapecoense 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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