Naestved 1-0 Aarhus Fremad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 2nd Division, 10 Nov 2024

📅10/11/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.99
Draw
18%
3.45
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.91
Over 2.5
55%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.41
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.48
6+ Goals
10%
13.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
16%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
30%
+8.0pp
18%
Draw
25%
-7.1pp
44%
Away Win
45%
-0.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.3pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naestved EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarhus Fremad EU Bookmakers 49%
+34% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -21%
2.78/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.83
+112% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -31%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naestved
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Aarhus Fremad
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
17.08.2024 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad 2-0 HT 0-0 Naestved Naestved DAN2
31.10.2021 Naestved Naestved 1-1 HT 0-0 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad DAN2
12.09.2021 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad 1-1 HT 1-0 Naestved Naestved DAN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naestved
1-0
AWAY Aarhus Fremad
30% Ball Possession 70%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Naestved vs Aarhus Fremad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naestved edged past Aarhus Fremad 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Aarhus Fremad at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Naestved had 30% of the ball to Aarhus Fremad's 70%, shots finished 11-11.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Aarhus Fremad led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Naestved and 1.33 for Aarhus Fremad.

What was the final score of Naestved vs Aarhus Fremad?

Naestved 1-0 Aarhus Fremad in the Denmark - 2nd Division on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naestved vs Aarhus Fremad?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aarhus Fremad win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Naestved 38%, draw 18%, Aarhus Fremad 44%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aarhus Fremad) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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