Aarhus Fremad 2-0 Naestved — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 2nd Division, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.47
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
28%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.6
No
53%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.88
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.17
6+ Goals
9%
10.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 28% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
6%
2/1
10%
2/2
16%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
37%
+11.9pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.4pp
28%
Away Win
38%
-9.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.2pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aarhus Fremad EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Naestved EU Bookmakers 42%
+12% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.79/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.26
+40% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
349 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aarhus Fremad
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Naestved
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
31.10.2021 Naestved Naestved 1-1 HT 0-0 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad DAN2
12.09.2021 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad 1-1 HT 1-0 Naestved Naestved DAN2
POST-MATCH Aarhus Fremad vs Naestved
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aarhus Fremad beat Naestved 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Aarhus Fremad as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Aarhus Fremad and 1.00 for Naestved.

What was the final score of Aarhus Fremad vs Naestved?

Aarhus Fremad 2-0 Naestved in the Denmark - 2nd Division on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aarhus Fremad vs Naestved?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aarhus Fremad win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Aarhus Fremad 49%, draw 23%, Naestved 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aarhus Fremad), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aarhus Fremad) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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DAN2 More Denmark - 2nd Division
17 Aug 2024
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