El Nacional 1-4 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 10 Nov 2024

📅10/11/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
25%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.78
Over 2.5
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
44%
+3.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
25%
Away Win
30%
-4.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.1pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Nacional EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 33%
-7% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.80/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.13
+2% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -19%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
269 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 73%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
22.2 Crosses 17.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Nacional
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Libertad
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.29 xG 0.55
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
161 Passes 248
61% Pass Accuracy 69%
14 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
18.05.2024 Libertad Libertad 0-2 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
26.09.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-1 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
23.04.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 4-2 HT 2-2 Libertad Libertad EKV1
21.10.2022 El Nacional El Nacional 4-2 HT 2-1 Libertad Libertad EKV2
18.10.2022 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 1-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV2
15.07.2022 Libertad Libertad 1-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Nacional
1-4
AWAY Libertad
0.89 xG 1.33
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 3
297 Passes 172
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
16 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH El Nacional vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad ran out comfortable winners over El Nacional 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was El Nacional at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, El Nacional had 61% of the ball to Libertad's 39%, shots finished 16-19, expected goals 0.89 to 1.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for El Nacional and 1.00 for Libertad.

What was the final score of El Nacional vs Libertad?

El Nacional 1-4 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 48%, draw 28%, Libertad 25%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (El Nacional), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (El Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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