Vitoria Guimaraes vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Vitoria Guimaraes v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 0-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
POK
1-1
HT 1-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
3-0
HT 1-0
Penafiel
POR
2-1
HT 0-1
Penafiel
HAZ
3-1
HT 2-0
Penafiel
POR
0-1
HT 0-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
Vitoria Guimaraes nicked a narrow win over Penafiel 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.
On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 58% of the ball to Penafiel's 42%, shots finished 18-3.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 0.83 for Penafiel.
What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Penafiel?
Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 Penafiel in the Portugal - Cup on 11/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Penafiel?
Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 54%, draw 21%, Penafiel 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.