Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 Penafiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 11 Jan 2024

📅11/01/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.33
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
25%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.33
Over 2.5
45%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.9
No
58%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
4.85
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
20%
2.65
6+ Goals
10%
6.87
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.85 — our 31% vs market 15.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
71%
-16.8pp
21%
Draw
18%
+2.3pp
26%
Away Win
11%
+14.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
39%
+15.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
61%
-15.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.9pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Penafiel EU Bookmakers 14%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
4.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.34
+44% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +104%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
479 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Penafiel
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
238 Passes 216
73% Pass Accuracy 68%
18.10.2015 Penafiel Penafiel 2-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POK
31.01.2015 Penafiel Penafiel 1-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
22.08.2014 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-0 HT 1-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR
19.07.2014 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 0-1 Penafiel Penafiel HAZ
15.04.2006 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-1 HT 2-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR
11.12.2005 Penafiel Penafiel 0-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
1-0
AWAY Penafiel
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Penafiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes nicked a narrow win over Penafiel 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 58% of the ball to Penafiel's 42%, shots finished 18-3.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 0.83 for Penafiel.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Penafiel?

Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 Penafiel in the Portugal - Cup on 11/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Penafiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 54%, draw 21%, Penafiel 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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