Sao Joao Ver 4-1 Fafe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
3.17
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
34%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.64
Over 2.5
45%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
28%
+9.6pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
34%
Away Win
44%
-9.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
57%
-2.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
43%
+2.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.6pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Joao Ver EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Fafe EU Bookmakers 48%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
0.70/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
-48% / +86% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +17%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
247 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 389 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Joao Ver
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Fafe
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.09.2024 Fafe Fafe 2-1 HT 0-0 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver POR3
29.04.2023 Fafe Fafe 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver POR3
07.04.2023 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver 1-2 HT 1-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
18.12.2022 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver 2-1 HT 0-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Joao Ver
4-1
AWAY Fafe
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 25
8 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 12
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Sao Joao Ver vs Fafe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Joao Ver ran out comfortable winners over Fafe 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Sao Joao Ver made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sao Joao Ver had 52% of the ball to Fafe's 48%, shots finished 12-25.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Fafe led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sao Joao Ver and 1.25 for Fafe.

What was the final score of Sao Joao Ver vs Fafe?

Sao Joao Ver 4-1 Fafe in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Joao Ver vs Fafe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Joao Ver win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sao Joao Ver 38%, draw 28%, Fafe 34%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Joao Ver) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sao Joao Ver) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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