Fafe 2-1 Sao Joao Ver — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.8
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
21%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
52%
-2.6pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.3pp
21%
Away Win
23%
-1.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
+0.3pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fafe EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Joao Ver EU Bookmakers 26%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
0.67/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.20
-49% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
304 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fafe
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Sao Joao Ver
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.04.2023 Fafe Fafe 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver POR3
07.04.2023 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver 1-2 HT 1-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
18.12.2022 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver 2-1 HT 0-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fafe
2-1
AWAY Sao Joao Ver
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 9
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fafe vs Sao Joao Ver
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fafe edged past Sao Joao Ver 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fafe as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fafe had 50% of the ball to Sao Joao Ver's 50%, shots finished 9-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fafe and 1.00 for Sao Joao Ver.

What was the final score of Fafe vs Sao Joao Ver?

Fafe 2-1 Sao Joao Ver in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fafe vs Sao Joao Ver?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fafe win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Fafe 49%, draw 30%, Sao Joao Ver 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fafe) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fafe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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