Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-0 Vilaverdense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
29%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
17%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
59%
-10.5pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.7pp
29%
Away Win
18%
+11.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.6pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Vilaverdense EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +63% / +63%
2.43/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.00
+58% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +98% / +28%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
302 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
1-0
AWAY Vilaverdense
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Vilaverdense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania FC Lourosa squeezed past Vilaverdense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lusitania FC Lourosa as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Lusitania FC Lourosa had 55% of the ball to Vilaverdense's 45%, shots finished 12-9.

What was the final score of Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Vilaverdense?

Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-0 Vilaverdense in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Vilaverdense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Lusitania FC Lourosa 49%, draw 22%, Vilaverdense 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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