Academica 2-3 Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-7.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.5pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.7pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Academica EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Caldas EU Bookmakers 29%
-12% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
0.66/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.41
-49% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / -13%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
291 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 221 · 66%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Academica
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Caldas
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
07.01.2024 Caldas Caldas 1-2 HT 0-0 Academica Academica POR3
17.09.2023 Academica Academica 0-1 HT 0-0 Caldas Caldas POR3
29.04.2023 Caldas Caldas 0-2 HT 0-1 Academica Academica POR3
08.04.2023 Academica Academica 2-1 HT 0-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
05.02.2023 Caldas Caldas 1-0 HT 1-0 Academica Academica POR3
23.10.2022 Academica Academica 1-4 HT 0-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Academica
2-3
AWAY Caldas
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Academica vs Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldas edged past Academica 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Caldas found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Academica had 63% of the ball to Caldas's 37%, shots finished 17-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Academica and 1.33 for Caldas.

What was the final score of Academica vs Caldas?

Academica 2-3 Caldas in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Academica vs Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Academica win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Academica 40%, draw 28%, Caldas 32%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Academica) ✗ Under 2.5
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