Varzim 3-0 Sanjoanense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
38%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.64
Over 2.5
47%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
49%
-10.9pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.6pp
38%
Away Win
24%
+13.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
57%
-4.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
43%
+4.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.8pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Varzim EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanjoanense EU Bookmakers 28%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +10%
1.07/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/0.82
-16% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +52%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
289 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Varzim
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Sanjoanense
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.01.2024 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense 0-3 HT 0-1 Varzim Varzim POR3
08.10.2023 Varzim Varzim 2-1 HT 1-0 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense POR3
27.01.2023 Varzim Varzim 0-1 HT 0-0 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense POR3
08.10.2022 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense 0-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Varzim
3-0
AWAY Sanjoanense
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Varzim vs Sanjoanense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varzim ran out comfortable winners over Sanjoanense 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 38%) promised a tight game; Varzim found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Varzim had 54% of the ball to Sanjoanense's 46%, shots finished 13-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Varzim had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Varzim and 0.50 for Sanjoanense.

What was the final score of Varzim vs Sanjoanense?

Varzim 3-0 Sanjoanense in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Varzim vs Sanjoanense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Varzim win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Varzim 38%, draw 24%, Sanjoanense 38%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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