Caldas 1-2 Academica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 7 Jan 2024

📅07/01/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+6.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.6pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caldas EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Academica EU Bookmakers 30%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
1.56/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.01
+20% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +27%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
304 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.4 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caldas
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Academica
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.09.2023 Academica Academica 0-1 HT 0-0 Caldas Caldas POR3
29.04.2023 Caldas Caldas 0-2 HT 0-1 Academica Academica POR3
08.04.2023 Academica Academica 2-1 HT 0-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
05.02.2023 Caldas Caldas 1-0 HT 1-0 Academica Academica POR3
23.10.2022 Academica Academica 1-4 HT 0-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caldas
1-2
AWAY Academica
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Caldas vs Academica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Academica nicked a narrow win over Caldas 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Caldas at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Caldas had 54% of the ball to Academica's 46%, shots finished 14-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Caldas had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Caldas and 1.00 for Academica.

What was the final score of Caldas vs Academica?

Caldas 1-2 Academica in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caldas vs Academica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Caldas 42%, draw 25%, Academica 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caldas), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caldas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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