Esenler Erokspor 1-1 Sakaryaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.99
Draw
22%
3.11
Away
50%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.74
Over 2.5
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.99
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.99
6+ Goals
10%
18.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
4.97
1/2
9%
28.5
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
10%
6.78
X/2
15%
4.94
X/X
11%
4.15
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
26%
3.17
2/X
6%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-2.4pp
22%
Draw
29%
-6.6pp
50%
Away Win
41%
+9.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.9pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esenler Erokspor EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Sakaryaspor EU Bookmakers 45%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
0.82/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.10
+7% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
293 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 76%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
26.5 Crosses 18.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esenler Erokspor
1-1
AWAY Sakaryaspor
0.86 xG 1.15
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
365 Passes 321
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Esenler Erokspor vs Sakaryaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esenler Erokspor and Sakaryaspor shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Sakaryaspor at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Esenler Erokspor had 54% of the ball to Sakaryaspor's 46%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.86 to 1.15.

What was the final score of Esenler Erokspor vs Sakaryaspor?

Esenler Erokspor 1-1 Sakaryaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esenler Erokspor vs Sakaryaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sakaryaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Esenler Erokspor 28%, draw 22%, Sakaryaspor 50%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sakaryaspor), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sakaryaspor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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