Moreirense vs Tondela Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Moreirense v Tondela — Team-Based Signals
Moreirense vs Tondela Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 0-1
Tondela
POR2
1-1
HT 1-0
Moreirense
POR2
2-0
HT 2-0
Tondela
POR
2-1
HT 0-1
Moreirense
POR
2-3
HT 2-3
Tondela
POR
0-0
HT 0-0
Moreirense
POR
Moreirense 1-0 Tondela — Actual Match Statistics
Moreirense nicked a narrow win over Tondela 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Moreirense found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Moreirense had 58% of the ball to Tondela's 42%, shots finished 7-8, expected goals 0.53 to 0.48.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Moreirense and 1.17 for Tondela.
What was the final score of Moreirense vs Tondela?
Moreirense 1-0 Tondela in the Portugal - Premier League on 11/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Moreirense vs Tondela?
Before kick-off our model rated a Moreirense win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Moreirense 39%, draw 26%, Tondela 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Moreirense) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.