Nacional 3-3 Santa Clara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 11 Jan 2026

📅11/01/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.48
Over 2.5
42%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.09
No
53%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.16
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
5.58
6+ Goals
9%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
4.13
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.55
X/1
7%
5.38
X/2
12%
5.57
X/X
11%
3.58
2/1
9%
35.0
2/2
17%
4.35
2/X
8%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
+0.5pp
27%
Draw
31%
-3.6pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+3.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
64%
-6.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
36%
+6.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.4pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Clara EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +10%
1.31/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.24
+18% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
298 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 76%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
23.1 Crosses 16.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Santa Clara
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.00 xG 1.84
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
261 Passes 287
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
11 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 4
30.03.2025 Santa Clara Santa Clara 1-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR
04.11.2024 Nacional Nacional 2-0 HT 2-0 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR
17.03.2024 Santa Clara Santa Clara 0-1 HT 0-1 Nacional Nacional POR2
11.01.2024 Santa Clara Santa Clara 1-1 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POK
04.11.2023 Nacional Nacional 1-1 HT 1-1 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR2
11.04.2021 Santa Clara Santa Clara 5-1 HT 2-0 Nacional Nacional POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional
3-3
AWAY Santa Clara
1.88 xG 2.64
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 22
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
277 Passes 322
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 35
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nacional vs Santa Clara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional and Santa Clara shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 2-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nacional had 46% of the ball to Santa Clara's 54%, shots finished 12-22, expected goals 1.88 to 2.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nacional and 1.33 for Santa Clara.

What was the final score of Nacional vs Santa Clara?

Nacional 3-3 Santa Clara in the Portugal - Premier League on 11/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional vs Santa Clara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Nacional 36%, draw 27%, Santa Clara 36%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/27/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
11 Jan 2026
21:00 Moreirense vs Tondela Analysis →