Hoffenheim 1-1 Köln — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 11 Feb 2024

Hoffenheim
1-1 HT 0-0
Köln
📅11/02/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Hoffenheim vs Köln Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.18
Over 2.5
59%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.63
No
42%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.31
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
26%
2.92
6+ Goals
15%
8.73
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.2
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.5
X/1
12%
4.21
X/2
12%
9.11
X/X
14%
5.51
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
21.2
2/2
8%
6.42
2/X
4%
14.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.2 — our 7% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-3.7pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.0pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+1.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
42%
-0.6pp
59%
Over 2.5
58%
+0.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
57%
+0.3pp
42%
BTTS No
43%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hoffenheim v Köln — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Köln EU Bookmakers 26%
-3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -9%
2.08/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.84
+1% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
387 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
30.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
21.2 Crosses 19.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Hoffenheim vs Köln Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Köln
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.91 xG 1.41
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
342 Passes 327
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.09.2023 Köln Köln 1-3 HT 0-2 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
22.04.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-3 HT 0-2 Köln Köln AL1
30.10.2022 Köln Köln 1-1 HT 1-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
06.03.2022 Köln Köln 0-1 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
15.10.2021 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 5-0 HT 1-0 Köln Köln AL1
24.01.2021 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 3-0 HT 2-0 Köln Köln AL1

Hoffenheim 1-1 Köln — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
1-1
AWAY Köln
1.26 xG 0.14
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 3
423 Passes 285
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 12
21 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs Köln
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim and Köln couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Hoffenheim at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while over 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 57% of the ball to Köln's 43%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 1.26 to 0.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hoffenheim had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Hoffenheim and 0.83 for Köln.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Köln?

Hoffenheim 1-1 Köln in the Germany - Bundesliga on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Köln?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 49%, draw 26%, Köln 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hoffenheim), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hoffenheim) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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