Stuttgart 3-1 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 11 Feb 2024

Stuttgart
3-1 HT 2-0
Mainz 05
📅11/02/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✓
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Stuttgart vs Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.49
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
19%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.79
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
3.16
6+ Goals
12%
10.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.82
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
17.0
X/1
21%
3.6
X/2
6%
12.25
X/X
8%
5.89
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
22.05
2/2
8%
9.7
2/X
6%
17.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.05 — our 7% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
63%
-2.1pp
20%
Draw
21%
-1.6pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+3.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.0pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stuttgart v Mainz 05 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 19%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +23%
2.32/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.72
+13% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +14%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
352 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 72%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
22.3 Crosses 15.2
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Stuttgart vs Mainz 05 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stuttgart
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Mainz 05
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.19 xG 0.94
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
385 Passes 308
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.09.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-3 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
21.05.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-4 HT 1-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
21.01.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-1 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
16.04.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-0 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
26.11.2021 Stuttgart Stuttgart 2-1 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
29.01.2021 Stuttgart Stuttgart 2-0 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1

Stuttgart 3-1 Mainz 05 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stuttgart
3-1
AWAY Mainz 05
1.94 xG 1.45
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
597 Passes 338
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Stuttgart vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart beat Mainz 05 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Stuttgart as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Stuttgart had 61% of the ball to Mainz 05's 39%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.94 to 1.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stuttgart had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Stuttgart and 0.67 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of Stuttgart vs Mainz 05?

Stuttgart 3-1 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stuttgart vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stuttgart win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Stuttgart 61%, draw 20%, Mainz 05 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stuttgart), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stuttgart) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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