Holstein Kiel 1-0 Schalke 04 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.55
No
42%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.18
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
2.97
6+ Goals
14%
9.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.4
1/2
7%
26.5
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1
14%
5.53
X/2
11%
5.78
X/X
13%
5.13
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
25.0
2/2
16%
3.62
2/X
8%
12.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.0 — our 11% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
38%
+0.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-1.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+1.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-1.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.5pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Schalke 04 EU Bookmakers 39%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -11%
1.64/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.76
+9% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -28%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
302 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 76%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
20.3 Crosses 20.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holstein Kiel
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Schalke 04
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.24 xG 1.23
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
392 Passes 323
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2023 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 0-2 HT 0-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
16.01.2022 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 1-1 HT 0-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
01.08.2021 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 0-3 HT 0-2 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Holstein Kiel
1-0
AWAY Schalke 04
2.27 xG 0.69
60% Ball Possession 40%
22 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 4
446 Passes 259
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
36 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Holstein Kiel vs Schalke 04
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Holstein Kiel nicked a narrow win over Schalke 04 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Holstein Kiel found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Holstein Kiel had 60% of the ball to Schalke 04's 40%, shots finished 22-7, expected goals 2.27 to 0.69 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Holstein Kiel's control.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.33 for Schalke 04.

What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs Schalke 04?

Holstein Kiel 1-0 Schalke 04 in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holstein Kiel vs Schalke 04?

Before kick-off our model rated a Holstein Kiel win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Holstein Kiel 39%, draw 27%, Schalke 04 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Holstein Kiel) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Holstein Kiel) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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