Hallescher FC 2-3 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 11 Feb 2024

Hallescher FC
2-3 HT 2-2
Erzgebirge Aue
📅11/02/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2023/2024

Hallescher FC vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.64
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.25
6+ Goals
9%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 27% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.54
1/2
9%
27.0
1/X
12%
12.8
X/1
13%
5.46
X/2
9%
5.58
X/X
8%
4.82
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
16%
3.64
2/X
7%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
38%
+0.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-2.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.4pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hallescher FC v Erzgebirge Aue — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hallescher FC EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 40%
+1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.54/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.36
+3% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
337 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 76%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
23.5 Crosses –
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Hallescher FC vs Erzgebirge Aue Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hallescher FC
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
17.09.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 3-1 HT 0-1 Hallescher FC Hallescher FC AL3
08.04.2023 Hallescher FC Hallescher FC 5-2 HT 1-2 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
14.10.2022 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-1 HT 0-1 Hallescher FC Hallescher FC AL3
18.03.2016 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 4-0 HT 1-0 Hallescher FC Hallescher FC AL3
03.10.2015 Hallescher FC Hallescher FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
19.07.2014 Hallescher FC Hallescher FC 1-2 HT 1-2 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue HAZ

Hallescher FC 2-3 Erzgebirge Aue — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hallescher FC
2-3
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hallescher FC vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue edged past Hallescher FC 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Erzgebirge Aue found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Hallescher FC had 48% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 52%, shots finished 10-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Hallescher FC and 2.00 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of Hallescher FC vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Hallescher FC 2-3 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hallescher FC vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hallescher FC win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Hallescher FC 39%, draw 28%, Erzgebirge Aue 34%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hallescher FC) ✗ Under 2.5
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