Hercilio Luz 2-0 Marcilio Dias — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Catarinense 1, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
Over 2.5
41%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
No
59%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
49%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
10%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
38%
+1.2pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.8pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hercilio Luz EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Marcilio Dias EU Bookmakers 37%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
1.52/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.74
+39% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -41%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
258 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hercilio Luz
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Marcilio Dias
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
15.01.2023 Marcilio Dias Marcilio Dias 0-2 HT 0-1 Hercilio Luz Hercilio Luz BRCAT1
19.02.2022 Marcilio Dias Marcilio Dias 0-0 HT 0-0 Hercilio Luz Hercilio Luz BRCAT1
20.03.2021 Hercilio Luz Hercilio Luz 1-0 HT 0-0 Marcilio Dias Marcilio Dias BRCAT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hercilio Luz
2-0
AWAY Marcilio Dias
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Hercilio Luz vs Marcilio Dias
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hercilio Luz saw off Marcilio Dias 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Hercilio Luz found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Hercilio Luz had 43% of the ball to Marcilio Dias's 57%, shots finished 14-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Hercilio Luz had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hercilio Luz and 0.00 for Marcilio Dias.

What was the final score of Hercilio Luz vs Marcilio Dias?

Hercilio Luz 2-0 Marcilio Dias in the Brazil - Catarinense 1 on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hercilio Luz vs Marcilio Dias?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hercilio Luz win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Hercilio Luz 39%, draw 29%, Marcilio Dias 32%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hercilio Luz), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hercilio Luz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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