11/02/2024
·
22:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
1-2
Nação vs Figueirense Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
Over 2.5
52%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
50%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
19%
X/X
17%
2/1
4%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
31%
Draw
22%
38%
Away Win
49%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Nação v Figueirense — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Nação
EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY
Figueirense
EU Bookmakers 54%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-15% /
-15%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-100%
/
–
44%
Ball Possession
56%
10
Total Shots
14
4
Shots on Target
5
3
Corners
5
293 · 76%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
454 · 85%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
2.0
POST-MATCH
Nação vs Figueirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Figueirense edged past Nação 1-0 away from home.
Our pre-match split (31% / 31% / 38%) promised a tight game; Figueirense found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Nação vs Figueirense?
Nação 0-1 Figueirense in the Brazil - Catarinense 1 on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Nação vs Figueirense?
Before kick-off our model rated an Figueirense win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Nação 31%, draw 31%, Figueirense 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Figueirense) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Figueirense)
✗ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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BRCAT1
More Brazil - Catarinense 1
11 Feb 2024