Heerenveen 3-2 Ajax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 11 Feb 2024

Heerenveen
3-2 HT 2-0
Ajax
📅11/02/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Heerenveen vs Ajax Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.08
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
45%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.61
Over 2.5
63%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.43
No
37%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
5.86
2-3 Goals
36%
2.03
4-5 Goals
29%
2.55
6+ Goals
18%
5.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.58
1/2
6%
19.15
1/X
7%
14.05
X/1
11%
8.81
X/2
21%
4.39
X/X
8%
6.54
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
34.0
2/2
18%
2.18
2/X
7%
13.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.0 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
29%
+4.5pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.8pp
44%
Away Win
48%
-3.7pp
37%
Under 2.5
35%
+2.4pp
63%
Over 2.5
65%
-2.4pp
63%
BTTS Yes
66%
-2.7pp
37%
BTTS No
34%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heerenveen v Ajax — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax EU Bookmakers 52%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.38/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.20/1.76
+5% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -37%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
299 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 81%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.8
17.0 Crosses 18.2
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.7

Heerenveen vs Ajax Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heerenveen
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Ajax
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.67
0.88 xG 2.70
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 9
283 Passes 514
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 44
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
05.11.2023 Ajax Ajax 4-1 HT 2-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
12.03.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 2-4 HT 1-3 Ajax Ajax HOL
10.09.2022 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 2-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
11.05.2022 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 3-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
16.10.2021 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-2 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
04.04.2021 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-2 HT 1-1 Ajax Ajax HOL

Heerenveen 3-2 Ajax — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heerenveen
3-2
AWAY Ajax
1.97 xG 1.38
34% Ball Possession 66%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
221 Passes 482
78% Pass Accuracy 87%
25 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 0
FAQ Heerenveen vs Ajax
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Heerenveen edged past Ajax 3-2 in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 11 Feb 2024. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

The goals market leaned clearly over 2.5, at 63% and both teams to score was favoured at 63%.

On the day, Heerenveen had 34% of the ball to Ajax's 66%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.97 to 1.38.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax lead the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Heerenveen and 3.67 for Ajax.

What was the final score of Heerenveen vs Ajax?

Heerenveen 3-2 Ajax in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heerenveen vs Ajax?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen 33%, draw 22%, Ajax 44%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ajax) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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