11/02/2024
·
15:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-2
2nd Score
2-1
Budissa Bautzen vs Arnstadt Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
Over 2.5
56%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
3%
1/X
14%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
58%
29%
Draw
22%
23%
Away Win
20%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Budissa Bautzen v Arnstadt — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Budissa Bautzen
EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY
Arnstadt
EU Bookmakers 23%
-3% /
-3%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-32% /
-32%
2.53/1.00
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.00/3.00
+48%
/
+80%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-100%
/
-34%
58%
Ball Possession
42%
15
Total Shots
10
6
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
4
400 · 82%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
265 · 72%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Budissa Bautzen vs Arnstadt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Budissa Bautzen beat Arnstadt 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Budissa Bautzen as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Budissa Bautzen vs Arnstadt?
Budissa Bautzen 2-0 Arnstadt in the Germany - Oberliga on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Budissa Bautzen vs Arnstadt?
Before kick-off our model rated a Budissa Bautzen win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Budissa Bautzen 48%, draw 29%, Arnstadt 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Budissa Bautzen) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Budissa Bautzen)
✗ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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OBER
More Germany - Oberliga
11 Feb 2024