Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-0 Varzim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+0.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Varzim EU Bookmakers 31%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
2.05/0.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.29/1.27
+61% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -73% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
299 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Varzim
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
57% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
08.12.2023 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-1 HT 1-1 Varzim Varzim POR3
25.08.2023 Varzim Varzim 3-0 HT 1-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
1-0
AWAY Varzim
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Varzim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania FC Lourosa edged past Varzim 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lusitania FC Lourosa as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lusitania FC Lourosa had 47% of the ball to Varzim's 53%, shots finished 13-14.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Varzim led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lusitania FC Lourosa and 2.00 for Varzim.

What was the final score of Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Varzim?

Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-0 Varzim in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Varzim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Lusitania FC Lourosa 46%, draw 27%, Varzim 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR3 More Portugal - 3rd Division
11 Feb 2024
14:00 Sporting Braga II vs Alverca Analysis →