Sporting Braga II 2-1 Alverca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.57
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
36%
+5.4pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.1pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-2.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga II EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Alverca EU Bookmakers 40%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
1.03/0.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/1.52
-19% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / -23%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
292 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga II
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Alverca
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.05.2023 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II 2-0 HT 0-0 Alverca Alverca POR3
16.04.2023 Alverca Alverca 2-1 HT 1-1 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga II
2-1
AWAY Alverca
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 1
0 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga II vs Alverca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga II squeezed past Alverca 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sporting Braga II as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sporting Braga II had 43% of the ball to Alverca's 57%, shots finished 9-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sporting Braga II and 1.00 for Alverca.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga II vs Alverca?

Sporting Braga II 2-1 Alverca in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga II vs Alverca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga II win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga II 41%, draw 25%, Alverca 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga II) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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