AS Marsa 1-0 EGS Gafsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division Yükselme / Düşme, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
37%
2.88
Away
24%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.38
Over 2.5
39%
2.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.4
No
57%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
1.91
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
17%
6.98
6+ Goals
8%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
7%
X/X
21%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.8pp
37%
Draw
31%
+5.7pp
24%
Away Win
27%
-2.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
69%
-8.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
31%
+8.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
38%
+5.4pp
57%
BTTS No
62%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AS Marsa EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY EGS Gafsa EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
343 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AS Marsa
1W-1D-0L
AWAY EGS Gafsa
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners
03.06.2023 AS Marsa AS Marsa 2-2 HT 0-1 EGS Gafsa EGS Gafsa TUN2
02.11.2014 AS Marsa AS Marsa 3-2 HT 1-1 EGS Gafsa EGS Gafsa TUN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AS Marsa
1-0
AWAY EGS Gafsa
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH AS Marsa vs EGS Gafsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AS Marsa squeezed past EGS Gafsa 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 37% / 24% — and on the day AS Marsa made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, AS Marsa had 58% of the ball to EGS Gafsa's 42%, shots finished 10-7.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, AS Marsa had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for AS Marsa and 2.00 for EGS Gafsa.

What was the final score of AS Marsa vs EGS Gafsa?

AS Marsa 1-0 EGS Gafsa in the Tunisia - 1st Division Yükselme / Düşme on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AS Marsa vs EGS Gafsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a AS Marsa win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split AS Marsa 39%, draw 37%, EGS Gafsa 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AS Marsa), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AS Marsa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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