Al Ahly 1-0 Ghazl El Mehalla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 11 Feb 2025

📅11/02/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.32
Draw
24%
4.62
Away
17%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.56
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.07
6+ Goals
11%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.56 — our 27% vs market 21.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
13%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
71%
-11.8pp
24%
Draw
18%
+5.9pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+5.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.1pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahly EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Ghazl El Mehalla EU Bookmakers 14%
+1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +8%
1.81/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.94
+22% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -12%
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
415 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 72%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.1
17.8 Crosses 14.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahly
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Ghazl El Mehalla
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.89 xG 0.55
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
425 Passes 261
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
29 Box Touches 10
20 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
05.04.2023 Al Ahly Al Ahly 3-0 HT 1-0 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla MSR
07.12.2022 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla 0-2 HT 0-2 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
22.06.2022 Al Ahly Al Ahly 2-1 HT 1-0 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla MSR
22.11.2021 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla 2-3 HT 0-1 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
03.05.2021 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla 1-0 HT 1-0 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
18.12.2020 Al Ahly Al Ahly 3-0 HT 0-0 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla MSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahly
1-0
AWAY Ghazl El Mehalla
0.65 xG 0.98
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
341 Passes 256
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Ahly vs Ghazl El Mehalla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahly nicked a narrow win over Ghazl El Mehalla 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Al Ahly as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Al Ahly had 56% of the ball to Ghazl El Mehalla's 44%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.65 to 0.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Ahly had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Al Ahly and 0.67 for Ghazl El Mehalla.

What was the final score of Al Ahly vs Ghazl El Mehalla?

Al Ahly 1-0 Ghazl El Mehalla in the Egypt - Premier League on 11/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahly vs Ghazl El Mehalla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahly win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Al Ahly 59%, draw 24%, Ghazl El Mehalla 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahly), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahly) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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