IFK Mariehamn 1-1 TPS Turku — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - League Cup, 11 Feb 2026

IFK Mariehamn
1-1 HT 0-0
TPS Turku
📅11/02/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Finland - League Cup – 2026

IFK Mariehamn vs TPS Turku Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.0
Over 2.5
45%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.59
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.14
6+ Goals
9%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.59 — our 31% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
12%
2/2
13%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
50%
+0.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.0pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
46%
+8.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
54%
-8.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.1pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

IFK Mariehamn v TPS Turku — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY TPS Turku EU Bookmakers 29%
-40% / -40% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
0.64/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/4.95
-62% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -72%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
312 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

IFK Mariehamn vs TPS Turku Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Mariehamn
1W-4D-1L
AWAY TPS Turku
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.05.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-2 HT 2-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİK
14.09.2020 TPS Turku TPS Turku 1-1 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
16.08.2020 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-0 HT 1-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN
02.02.2020 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-1 HT 1-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİK
23.09.2018 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-2 HT 1-2 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN
29.06.2018 TPS Turku TPS Turku 2-0 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
POST-MATCH IFK Mariehamn vs TPS Turku
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IFK Mariehamn and TPS Turku couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was IFK Mariehamn at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for IFK Mariehamn and 1.33 for TPS Turku.

What was the final score of IFK Mariehamn vs TPS Turku?

IFK Mariehamn 1-1 TPS Turku in the Finland - League Cup on 11/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Mariehamn vs TPS Turku?

Before kick-off our model rated a IFK Mariehamn win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split IFK Mariehamn 50%, draw 25%, TPS Turku 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (IFK Mariehamn), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (IFK Mariehamn) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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