Lazio 1-2 Udinese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 11 Mar 2024

📅11/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.74
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.26
6+ Goals
9%
21.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.54
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
13%
14.35
X/1
19%
4.08
X/2
10%
8.1
X/X
9%
4.26
2/1
9%
27.0
2/2
11%
6.64
2/X
7%
15.15
Value flag · 1/X at 14.35 — our 13% vs market 4.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
50%
-7.0pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+5.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.4pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Udinese EU Bookmakers 26%
-8% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -16%
1.24/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.33
-23% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
368 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 76%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
21.1 Crosses 17.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lazio
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Udinese
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.17 xG 1.03
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
517 Passes 325
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
07.01.2024 Udinese Udinese 1-2 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
21.05.2023 Udinese Udinese 0-1 HT 0-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
16.10.2022 Lazio Lazio 0-0 HT 0-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
20.02.2022 Udinese Udinese 1-1 HT 1-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
18.01.2022 Lazio Lazio 1-0 HT 0-0 Udinese Udinese İTK
02.12.2021 Lazio Lazio 4-4 HT 1-3 Udinese Udinese İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio
1-2
AWAY Udinese
2.30 xG 1.23
69% Ball Possession 31%
18 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 5
479 Passes 186
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
32 Box Touches 21
34 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Lazio vs Udinese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Udinese edged past Lazio 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Lazio at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lazio had 69% of the ball to Udinese's 31%, shots finished 18-14, expected goals 2.30 to 1.23 — the balance of chances actually favoured Lazio.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lazio had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lazio and 1.00 for Udinese.

What was the final score of Lazio vs Udinese?

Lazio 1-2 Udinese in the Italy - Serie A on 11/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio vs Udinese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Lazio 43%, draw 29%, Udinese 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lazio) ✗ Under 2.5
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