AGF Aarhus 1-0 FC Nordsjaelland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - DBU Cup, 11 Apr 2024

📅11/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.32
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
46%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
1.82
Over 2.5
58%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.81
No
43%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.13
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.74
6+ Goals
11%
15.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.74 — our 29% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
4.88
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
8%
14.0
X/1
9%
6.67
X/2
15%
4.59
X/X
11%
4.77
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.9
2/X
9%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
26%
-1.1pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.2pp
46%
Away Win
48%
-2.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
51%
-9.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
49%
+9.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
51%
+6.0pp
43%
BTTS No
49%
-6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Nordsjaelland EU Bookmakers 52%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.16/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.01/1.27
+34% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -24%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
302 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 77%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
19.0 Crosses 8.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
2W-2D-2L
AWAY FC Nordsjaelland
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.12 xG 1.34
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
343 Passes 458
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
29.03.2024 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 2-3 HT 1-2 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAK
26.11.2023 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 0-0 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
31.07.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-3 HT 1-1 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
14.05.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
30.04.2023 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 0-1 HT 0-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
10.11.2022 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-2 HT 0-1 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
1-0
AWAY FC Nordsjaelland
0.60 xG 1.40
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 7
176 Passes 412
66% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 35
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs FC Nordsjaelland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus edged past FC Nordsjaelland 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was FC Nordsjaelland at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 35% of the ball to FC Nordsjaelland's 65%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.60 to 1.40 — the balance of chances actually favoured FC Nordsjaelland.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for AGF Aarhus and 1.33 for FC Nordsjaelland.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs FC Nordsjaelland?

AGF Aarhus 1-0 FC Nordsjaelland in the Denmark - DBU Cup on 11/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs FC Nordsjaelland?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Nordsjaelland win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 25%, draw 29%, FC Nordsjaelland 46%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FC Nordsjaelland) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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