FC Nordsjaelland 2-3 AGF Aarhus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - DBU Cup, 29 Mar 2024

📅29/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
34%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.59
Over 2.5
47%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.09
No
50%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.44
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
4.91
6+ Goals
11%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.51
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.4
X/1
13%
3.88
X/2
14%
8.3
X/X
16%
4.02
2/1
10%
29.0
2/2
15%
7.22
2/X
6%
16.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
51%
-11.7pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
34%
Away Win
22%
+12.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
59%
-6.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
41%
+6.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.4pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Nordsjaelland EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 25%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
2.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.76
+4% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
374 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.0
Crosses 8.0
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Nordsjaelland
2W-3D-1L
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.48 xG 0.98
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
458 Passes 334
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.11.2023 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 0-0 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
31.07.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-3 HT 1-1 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
14.05.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
30.04.2023 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 0-1 HT 0-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
10.11.2022 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-2 HT 0-1 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAK
16.10.2022 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 1-1 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Nordsjaelland
2-3
AWAY AGF Aarhus
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
POST-MATCH FC Nordsjaelland vs AGF Aarhus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus edged past FC Nordsjaelland 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 34%) promised a tight game; AGF Aarhus found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, FC Nordsjaelland had 61% of the ball to AGF Aarhus's 39%, shots finished 12-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Nordsjaelland had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for FC Nordsjaelland and 0.67 for AGF Aarhus.

What was the final score of FC Nordsjaelland vs AGF Aarhus?

FC Nordsjaelland 2-3 AGF Aarhus in the Denmark - DBU Cup on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Nordsjaelland vs AGF Aarhus?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Nordsjaelland win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split FC Nordsjaelland 39%, draw 26%, AGF Aarhus 34%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FC Nordsjaelland) ✗ Under 2.5
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