HJK Helsinki 4-0 FC Lahti — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 11 Apr 2024

📅11/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.45
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.16
2-3 Goals
42%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
3.04
6+ Goals
12%
9.52
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.16 — our 25% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.76
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
17.9
X/1
14%
3.62
X/2
9%
13.45
X/X
13%
6.4
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
6%
10.45
2/X
6%
18.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
65%
-9.1pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.4pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.4pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Lahti EU Bookmakers 18%
+2% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.68/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.49
+16% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -8%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
459 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 72%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
17.0 Crosses 16.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HJK Helsinki
3W-1D-2L
AWAY FC Lahti
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.50 xG 0.83
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
443 Passes 204
84% Pass Accuracy 68%
41 Box Touches 12
34 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.02.2024 FC Lahti FC Lahti 3-0 HT 2-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FLK
08.07.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 0-1 HT 0-1 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
07.06.2023 FC Lahti FC Lahti 1-2 HT 1-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
08.02.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 5-2 HT 1-1 FC Lahti FC Lahti FLK
17.05.2022 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 3-2 HT 0-1 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
12.05.2022 FC Lahti FC Lahti 1-1 HT 1-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HJK Helsinki
4-0
AWAY FC Lahti
3.10 xG 1.02
60% Ball Possession 40%
24 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 4
506 Passes 300
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
35 Box Touches 10
13 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH HJK Helsinki vs FC Lahti
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki swept aside FC Lahti 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had HJK Helsinki as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, HJK Helsinki had 60% of the ball to FC Lahti's 40%, shots finished 24-10, expected goals 3.10 to 1.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for HJK Helsinki and 1.67 for FC Lahti.

What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs FC Lahti?

HJK Helsinki 4-0 FC Lahti in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 11/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HJK Helsinki vs FC Lahti?

Before kick-off our model rated a HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split HJK Helsinki 55%, draw 24%, FC Lahti 20%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HJK Helsinki), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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