Motagua 1-1 Real Espana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 11 Apr 2024

Motagua
1-1 HT 1-1
Real Espana
📅11/04/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Honduras - National League Apertura – 2023/2024

Motagua vs Real Espana Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
22%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.82
No
46%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
59%
-4.7pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.0pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.7pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Motagua v Real Espana — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Espana EU Bookmakers 21%
+7% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -21%
2.09/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.73
+5% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
362 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6

Motagua vs Real Espana Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motagua
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Real Espana
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.01.2024 Real Espana Real Espana 3-1 HT 2-1 Motagua Motagua HON
29.10.2023 Motagua Motagua 4-1 HT 2-0 Real Espana Real Espana HON
04.09.2023 Real Espana Real Espana 3-3 HT 1-2 Motagua Motagua HON
05.03.2023 Real Espana Real Espana 0-3 HT 0-2 Motagua Motagua HON
26.01.2023 Motagua Motagua 1-0 HT 0-0 Real Espana Real Espana HON
02.10.2022 Motagua Motagua 1-2 HT 1-2 Real Espana Real Espana HON
POST-MATCH Motagua vs Real Espana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua and Real Espana shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

This one beat our numbers. Motagua carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Motagua had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Motagua and 1.50 for Real Espana.

What was the final score of Motagua vs Real Espana?

Motagua 1-1 Real Espana in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 11/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs Real Espana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Motagua 55%, draw 23%, Real Espana 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Motagua), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Motagua) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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