Real Espana 3-1 Motagua — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 28 Jan 2024

Real Espana
3-1 HT 2-1
Motagua
📅28/01/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Honduras - National League Apertura – 2023/2024

Real Espana vs Motagua Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
29%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.15
Over 2.5
47%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+1.3pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.0pp
29%
Away Win
34%
-5.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
43%
+9.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
57%
-9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Espana v Motagua — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Espana EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Motagua EU Bookmakers 38%
-11% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +3%
1.43/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.07
+8% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +14%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
267 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.7 Yellow Cards 4.1

Real Espana vs Motagua Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Espana
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Motagua
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Motagua Motagua 4-1 HT 2-0 Real Espana Real Espana HON
04.09.2023 Real Espana Real Espana 3-3 HT 1-2 Motagua Motagua HON
05.03.2023 Real Espana Real Espana 0-3 HT 0-2 Motagua Motagua HON
26.01.2023 Motagua Motagua 1-0 HT 0-0 Real Espana Real Espana HON
02.10.2022 Motagua Motagua 1-2 HT 1-2 Real Espana Real Espana HON
08.08.2022 Real Espana Real Espana 1-1 HT 1-1 Motagua Motagua HON
POST-MATCH Real Espana vs Motagua
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Espana beat Motagua 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Real Espana as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Motagua led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Real Espana and 2.17 for Motagua.

What was the final score of Real Espana vs Motagua?

Real Espana 3-1 Motagua in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Espana vs Motagua?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Espana win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Real Espana 41%, draw 30%, Motagua 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Espana) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Espana) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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