Leones Negros Udeg 3-2 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 11 Apr 2024

📅11/04/2024 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.3
Draw
25%
4.81
Away
15%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
25%
X/2
5%
X/X
16%
2/1
10%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
72%
-12.1pp
25%
Draw
17%
+8.0pp
15%
Away Win
10%
+4.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.7pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 14%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -6%
2.49/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.58/1.62
+39% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +6%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
405 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leones Negros Udeg
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
5 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 5
13.08.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-0 HT 0-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
28.04.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-1 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
19.02.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
11.07.2022 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-0 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
10.03.2022 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 2-1 HT 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
19.11.2021 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1 HT 1-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
POST-MATCH Leones Negros Udeg vs Tepatitlán de Morelos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leones Negros Udeg nicked a narrow win over Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-2. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Leones Negros Udeg as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leones Negros Udeg had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Leones Negros Udeg and 0.67 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.

What was the final score of Leones Negros Udeg vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Leones Negros Udeg 3-2 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 11/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leones Negros Udeg vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leones Negros Udeg win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Leones Negros Udeg 60%, draw 25%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 15%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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