Valencia 1-0 Sevilla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.6
Over
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2.46
2-3
38%
1.77
4-5
19%
4.62
6+
9%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.34
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
16%
4.99
X/2
9%
6.62
X/X
10%
3.86
2/1
11%
31.0
2/2
14%
5.17
2/X
10%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.3pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.3pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.4pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valencia EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sevilla EU Bookmakers 32%
+6% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +15%
1.28/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.35
+5% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +46%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
321 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 78%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
21.9 Crosses 16.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valencia
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Sevilla
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.94 xG 0.62
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
306 Passes 374
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
11.01.2025 Sevilla Sevilla 1-1 HT 0-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
17.02.2024 Valencia Valencia 0-0 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
11.08.2023 Sevilla Sevilla 1-2 HT 0-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
16.04.2023 Valencia Valencia 0-2 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
18.10.2022 Sevilla Sevilla 1-1 HT 0-1 Valencia Valencia İS1
19.01.2022 Valencia Valencia 1-1 HT 1-1 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valencia
1-0
AWAY Sevilla
1.25 xG 0.81
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
361 Passes 364
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Valencia vs Sevilla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valencia edged past Sevilla 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Valencia as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Valencia had 52% of the ball to Sevilla's 48%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 1.25 to 0.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Valencia and 1.00 for Sevilla.

What was the final score of Valencia vs Sevilla?

Valencia 1-0 Sevilla in the Spain - Primera Liga on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valencia vs Sevilla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valencia win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Valencia 44%, draw 27%, Sevilla 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valencia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Valencia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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